Recently, the International Aluminum Association published the aluminum consumption assessment report of China's automobile industry (2016-2030) on its website, which was completed by CM consulting company entrusted by the International Aluminum Association. The report introduces the comprehensive evaluation results of CM consulting company on aluminum consumption in China's automobile industry, including passenger cars, commercial vehicles (buses and vans), special vehicles, two wheeled vehicles and three wheeled vehicles.

According to the report, from now to 2030, China's automobile industry is likely to undergo a huge transformation from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles. As the preferred material for Chinese automakers to reduce vehicle weight, aluminum makes good use of this transformation. Although the outlook for the number of fuel vehicles remains unchanged, the weight reduction measures are likely to increase the unit consumption of aluminum in vehicle manufacturing, thus driving consumption growth.

According to the report, the aluminum consumption of China's automobile industry will increase from 3.8 million tons in 2018 to 9.1 million tons in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.9%. < p > < p class = "indent" > China's auto production.

In 2017, China's total automobile production was about 31.4 million, an increase of 4.7% compared with 30 million in 2016. In 2018, due to the overall economic slowdown, China's automobile production declined for the first time in 28 years, with a production of 29.8 million vehicles. Among them, there are 23.2 million passenger cars, 4 million freight cars, 400000 passenger cars and 2.2 million special vehicles.

In contrast, China's new energy vehicle market, with a new energy vehicle output of 1.1 million in 2018, is expected to reach 11.6 million in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.4%. It is worth noting that Bev production is expected to grow 23% over the same period, from 770000 in 2018 to 9.2 million in 2030. The report predicts that the rapid development of the industry may promote the strong growth of the aluminum market.

In 2018, China also produced 15.8 million traditional fuel oil (ice) motorcycles and 31.8 million e-bikes. Considering that the domestic market has been saturated (especially traditional ice motorcycles), the future growth target is likely to be export. The report predicts that the output of electric vehicles will increase at a compound annual growth rate of 2%, while the output of ice motorcycles will decrease at a compound annual growth rate of 2%. It is expected that the production of ice motorcycles will drop to 12.4 million in 2030, while that of electric bicycles will increase to 40.3 million.

China's auto aluminum consumption

China's automobile industry has gradually shifted its focus to lightweight in an effort to meet increasingly stringent legislation. In line with this, it is expected that the demand for aluminum will increase and the use of aluminum will also increase.

According to CM's survey, aluminum consumption in the automotive industry in 2017 was 3.9 million tons, an increase of 8% over 2016. In 2018, due to the stagnant sales of passenger vehicles, the total consumption decreased slightly by 1%. However, we are optimistic about the use prospect of aluminum in the automobile industry. It is predicted that by 2030, the total consumption of aluminum in the automobile industry will reach 10.7 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.9%.

Passenger cars are the main market of aluminum, and the consumption of aluminum in 2017 is estimated to be 2.9 million tons, accounting for 74% of the total consumption. Due to the recent slowdown in China's economic activities, the total production of passenger vehicles in 2018 decreased by 6.6%, resulting in a 3.6% decrease in aluminum use of passenger vehicles.

However, in 2018, new energy passenger vehicle (nev) production increased significantly by 75%, mainly due to strong demand for pure electric vehicles (Bev). As a result, China's aluminum consumption of new energy vehicles increased by 96%, from 75000 tons in 2017 to 146000 tons in 2018. With the support of energy conservation and emission reduction targets set by the government, we are still optimistic about the future of China's new energy vehicle industry. It is expected that by 2030, the proportion of aluminum used in China's new energy vehicle industry will rise from 3.8% of the total aluminum consumption at present to 29.4%.

According to the consumption of single vehicle, in 2018, the aluminum consumption of new energy bus industry is the largest, with an estimated consumption of 210 kg aluminum per bus and 179.6 kg for hybrid bus. The aluminum consumption of BEV bus and ice bus is 128.4kg and 118.7kg, respectively. However, compared with the developed countries such as the United States and Japan, the aluminum consumption of Chinese car is still far behind.

We believe that the gap in aluminum use intensity between China and the above-mentioned developed countries in the world will be narrowed, because Chinese manufacturers are facing increasingly stringent energy conservation and emission reduction policies, which inevitably lead to the demand for light materials. It is worth noting that the report predicts that the unit consumption of pure electric vehicle (Bev) aluminum will reach 283.5 kg by 2030.

In addition to weight reduction, another growing advantage of aluminum is that compared with other similar products, aluminum has good recycling characteristics. The low cost and simple recovery of aluminum can be seen from the increase in the use of recycled aluminum in China's automobile industry. Recycled aluminum is mainly used for casting parts such as engines, housings and wheels.

With the growing maturity and cost focus of Chinese automobile manufacturers, recycled metals will be more widely recognized, and the total consumption of recycled aluminum will increase significantly. However, the share of recycled aluminum in China's total consumption is expected to decline due to stronger growth in the all electric vehicle (Bev) industry, which does not need engines.

In China's automobile industry, aluminum has many applications and forms, including castings, rolled products, extrusions and forgings. In automobile industry, casting plays an important role in the application of engine, wheel and gearbox.

According to CM survey, the consumption of aluminum castings in 2018 is about 2.9 million tons, accounting for 75% of the total consumption. The report predicts that as Bev's market share in the future increases, the share of castings will decline, while the share of rolled products mainly used to manufacture battery housings and body panels will increase.

In the report, new energy vehicles refer to some or all electric driven vehicles, including pure electric vehicles (Bev), hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles (HEV and PHEV). Although the development of China's new energy vehicle industry is still in its infancy, in the past few years, the government's support policies have promoted the strong growth of new energy vehicles. In the short and medium term, we expect that the new energy vehicle industry will maintain the momentum of growth.

In 2017, China produced 478000 pure electric vehicles, 67% of which were "mini vehicles" (A00 type). In 2018, the total production of pure electric vehicles reached 770000, an increase of 61% year-on-year, but the proportion of A00 vehicles in the total production of vehicles dropped to 55%. This reflects the increasing production of pure electric vehicles, which the report predicts will continue.

In 2018, the average aluminum consumption of new energy vehicles is estimated to be 141.5 kg (128.4 kg for pure electric vehicles and 179.6 kg for hybrid vehicles). The report predicts that the figure will exceed 280 kg by 2030, and the unit consumption of pure electric vehicle aluminum will reach 283.5 kg.

Most of the cars in China are fuel vehicles. In 2018, China produced 22.1 million fuel vehicles, down 8.6% from 2017. It is estimated that 2.6 million tons of aluminum will be consumed in fuel vehicle production in 2018, with an average consumption of 118.7 kg per vehicle. Given the government's clear incentives for new energy vehicles, the outlook for China's fuel vehicle industry remains weak. The report predicts that in the next 10 years, China's fuel vehicle production will remain at or near the level of 2018. Nevertheless, the report predicts that by 2030, the total consumption of aluminum for fuel vehicles will increase steadily, from the current 2.6 million tons to 4.9 million tons, due to the increased use of aluminum and the need to achieve lightweight.

The total aluminum consumption of other vehicles is 1.1 million tons, including buses, vans, special vehicles and bicycles with two or three wheels. The application prospect of aluminum in commercial vehicles is still promising, especially in the field of freight cars.

Lightweight is a special concern for trucks and other commercial vehicles. Weight reduction means that vehicles can carry more goods, and the final income will be higher and higher. According to the report, the aluminum consumption of trucks and new energy vehicles will reach 1.4 million tons in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 11%.